ROME / EuroWire / — Global cereal production and trade are projected to decline in the year ahead, as early forecasts point to lower harvests across all major cereals after a record 2025 season, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations said in its latest market assessment. The Rome-based agency placed 2026/27 world cereal output at 2.982 billion tonnes, including rice in milled equivalent. That would mark a 2.0 percent fall from the prior year.
The expected decline follows a strong 2025 harvest. Global cereal production reached an estimated 3.043 billion tonnes in 2025, up 6.1 percent from 2024. The increase reflected sharp gains across major crops, with maize showing notable growth. World cereal use also rose in the 2025/26 season. It reached 2.952 billion tonnes, up 2.7 percent from the previous season, led by higher use of coarse grains and rice.
The new forecast shows lower output for wheat, maize, barley, rice and other major cereals in 2026/27. Wheat faces the largest percentage decline among the main cereal groups. Maize and barley show the smallest expected drops. The figures place the global cereal market below last year’s peak, while still near high recent levels. Cereal market updates remain central to food security tracking, trade planning and agricultural price monitoring.
Stocks remain comfortable
World cereal utilization is forecast to increase by 0.6 percent in 2026/27 to 2.969 billion tonnes. Food consumption of cereals is expected to rise by 1.0 percent from 2025/26. Feed use is forecast to grow by 0.5 percent, with gains for maize and barley. Feed demand for wheat and rice is expected to decline. Other cereal uses are forecast to ease by 0.2 percent, mainly due to lower wheat and barley use.
World cereal stocks are forecast to slip by 0.3 percent to 949.0 million tonnes by the end of seasons in 2026. Lower rice and sorghum inventories account for most of the expected decrease. Wheat and barley stocks are forecast to rebuild. The global cereal stock-to-use ratio is expected to stay close to the 2025/26 level at 31.7 percent. FAO described overall cereal stocks as comfortable under current supply and demand forecasts.
Trade outlook turns lower
Global cereal trade is projected to fall by 0.3 percent in 2026/27 to 507.2 million tonnes. The forecast follows a 4.8 percent expansion in 2025/26, when trade reached 508.6 million tonnes. Lower wheat and barley shipments account for most of the expected decline. Maize trade is projected to rise by 3.9 percent. Rice trade is forecast to increase by 1.4 percent, partly offsetting weaker flows in other cereal markets.
The cereal outlook came as global food commodity prices stayed broadly stable in May. The food price index averaged 130.8 points, down 0.2 percent from April and 2.9 percent above its level a year earlier. Cereal prices rose 2.6 percent from April and stood nearly 5.0 percent higher than a year earlier. Wheat, maize and rice quotations increased, while vegetable oil prices fell and sugar prices rose.