GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – Amid broader signs of recovery in international commerce, the World Trade Organization has revised its 2026 global merchandise trade growth estimate upward to 3.9 percent. This marks a significant increase from the 1.9 percent projection issued in March. According to the WTO, robust trade performance in the first half of the year, supply chain realignments, and increased investments in artificial intelligence contributed to this upward revision. Despite major disruptions affecting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent during the first half of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade growth of 4.1 percent in 2027.
During the initial six months, demand driven by artificial intelligence played a key role in boosting merchandise trade. Goods enabling AI technologies, such as semiconductors and servers, represented 47 percent of global merchandise trade expansion. Trade in these products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that worldwide investment in AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. This strong demand for computing hardware helped sustain trade flows, even as other sectors faced disruptions from conflict and transportation challenges.
Adjustments in global supply chains also responded to pressures in key commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Simultaneously, liquefied natural gas shipments from the region fell by 47 percent over the same period. Nonetheless, increased exports from alternative suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil to about 6 percent, while global LNG exports decreased by just 1 percent. Worldwide container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, as trade shifted through alternative ports and routes.
AI-enabled goods bolster international merchandise trade
This optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for services. The WTO has lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel. Second-quarter international tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent, with a marginal 0.4 percent overall increase during the first half. Growth in travel-related spending also slowed significantly between the first and second quarters.
In contrast, other service sectors performed more strongly despite challenges in travel and transportation. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent compared to the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Additionally, exports of financial services rose 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO projects that commercial services trade volume will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027. The organization also anticipates global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade growth varies significantly across regions
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal notable disparities across the globe. The WTO predicts Asia will lead with a 9.9 percent increase in exports for 2026. North America is expected to see 5.7 percent growth, while Africa is forecast at 5.6 percent. South America is projected to grow by 3.4 percent, whereas Europe is anticipated to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest contraction, with merchandise exports expected to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Similarly, regional import growth shows considerable variation. Asia is forecast to register 9.5 percent, while Africa is projected at 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to increase by 1.4 percent, and European imports by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports into the Middle East are predicted to drop by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the latest figures demonstrate trade resilience but also highlight how different regions are exposed to ongoing economic and geopolitical disruptions.