PARIS, FRANCE / RankWire.AI / – As the world economy demonstrates unexpected resilience, the OECD has increased its projection for global growth in 2026 to 2.9%. This adjustment marks an upward revision from the 2.8% forecast issued in the organization’s June report. Conversely, the OECD has downgraded its outlook for 2027 slightly, lowering the estimate to 3.0% from 3.1%. Continued investment in artificial intelligence has played a key role in supporting production, trade, and overall economic activity. However, elevated energy costs and persistent inflationary pressures remain significant challenges for major economies.
The September Interim Economic Outlook revealed that global growth decelerated during the first half of 2026, with an annualized rate dropping to 2.6%, compared to 3.6% during the second half of 2025. Despite this slowdown, economic performance in many energy-importing and energy-exporting nations was stronger than anticipated. Factors such as oil inventories, additional output outside the Gulf region, and alternative supply channels helped mitigate the impact of the energy shock. Additionally, reduced oil demand from China contributed to balancing global energy markets.
The OECD emphasized that technology investments continue to serve as a vital pillar of economic support. Exports of semiconductors surged notably in Korea and Japan, while China also experienced growth in technology exports. Across much of Asia, industrial output linked to technology maintained rapid expansion. Similar growth was observed in the United States and several European nations. Consumer confidence improved in advanced economies after May, and unemployment rates remained low in many regions. Nonetheless, rising fuel prices continued to exert pressure on household purchasing power.
US Economic Momentum Grows as Eurozone Economy Remains Weak
Projections indicate that the United States will see a 2.2% growth in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. The strengthening of AI-related investments is supporting economic activity, though slower consumer spending and subdued real income growth are tempering gains. The euro area is expected to expand by 1.0% in both years, with higher energy costs and interest rates dampening growth across the region. Japan’s economy is forecasted to grow 0.8% in 2026, then slightly slow to 0.7% in 2027.
China’s economy is anticipated to grow by 4.5% in 2026, before easing to 4.2% in 2027. Meanwhile, India is projected to achieve a 7.1% expansion in the fiscal year 2026-27, following 7.8% growth in the prior year. Growth is expected to slow slightly to 6.5% in the fiscal year 2027-28. Indonesia’s economy is forecast to expand 5.2% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027. Mexico’s gross domestic product is predicted to increase by 1.5% this year and 1.8% in 2027.
Inflation in G20 Countries Rises Due to Energy Price Pressures
Inflation remains a core concern within the OECD forecast. The headline inflation rate across G20 economies is expected to reach 4.1% in 2026, up from 3.4% in 2025, before declining to 3.6% in 2027. Advanced G20 nations are forecast to experience inflation of 3.2% this year and 2.6% next year. The United States inflation rate is projected to decrease from 3.6% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027, while euro area inflation is anticipated at 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
The OECD highlighted that rising energy prices have contributed to increased household expenses and renewed inflationary pressures in many economies. Additionally, long-term government bond yields have climbed as public borrowing and debt servicing costs escalate. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann remarked that global growth has been more resilient than expected, although the economy remains weaker than in the previous year. The organization called for targeted, temporary support measures, sustainable public finance strategies, and enhanced long-term productivity. It also recommended that governments focus on expanding skills, diversifying energy sources, and promoting broader adoption of artificial intelligence.