MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has outlined a plan to reach an annual coal output of 662 million tonnes by 2050 as part of a newly endorsed sector development initiative. This goal is incorporated into Russia’s revised coal growth blueprint, with current production at around 443 million tonnes in 2024. The government approved the plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, establishing long-term benchmarks for coal output, exports, and sector advancement.
The strategy presents four potential pathways for the coal industry through 2050. Under the primary scenario, production is projected to hit 530.1 million tonnes in 2030, then 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, eventually reaching 662 million tonnes by 2050. The alternative scenarios suggest lower 2050 production levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, the plan specifies export goals. The primary scenario estimates coal exports at 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The document covers both domestic consumption and foreign sales of coal.
Production and export projections
The government’s plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding coal resource development. It highlights a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together contributed 48.3% of national output in 2024. The plan envisions this share growing to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports having more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
Additional targets focus on coal processing techniques and mining methods. The share of processed coal, excluding lignite, was 58.9% in 2024. The strategy aims for this figure to reach between 74% and 76% by 2050. In 2024, open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of total production, with its share expected to increase to between 82% and 85%. The document also discusses measures related to productivity, technology adoption, safety, and environmental standards.
Coal development plan extending to 2050
Russia intends to implement the plan in three phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, focuses on enhancing production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, centers on improving coal utilization, processing technology, and regional logistics. The final phase spans 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the plan’s execution alongside other federal, regional, and participating organizations, with annual reports submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development per government instructions.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced the updated initiative during a government session on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal industry plan, which covered the years up to 2035 and was approved in 2020. Novak highlighted that the new strategy forecasts a sixfold rise in the sector’s gross value added by 2050 and estimated its overall multiplier effect at nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains the primary scenario, rather than a guaranteed projection.