MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia is planning to boost its annual vehicle output to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035 as part of an updated national automotive development plan. During a sector-focused meeting on Aug. 31, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this target. The projected figure encompasses vehicles intended for both the domestic market and exports. Additionally, the strategy aims to achieve an 80% share of locally manufactured vehicles in Russia’s new-vehicle market by 2035.
On Aug. 24, the Russian government ratified the revised automotive blueprint, extending the industry’s strategic framework through 2035. At the close of 2025, Russia’s vehicle manufacturing capacity was approximately 3.3 million units annually, although actual production that year was near 800,000 vehicles. Capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles during 2024 and 2025, with figures reaching 35% for trucks and 43% for buses.
The envisioned scenario for 2035 projects the production of around 2.5 million passenger vehicles and roughly 170,000 light commercial units. The plan also calls for manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car production is to be distributed across four or five vehicle platforms, whereas light commercial vehicles are expected to be built on one or two platforms. The total new-vehicle market is estimated at about 3.2 million units in 2035, with imports potentially making up to 20% of that total.
Production targets encompass all vehicle categories
The strategy also features a conservative baseline scenario with reduced production and market estimates. Under this plan, annual vehicle output would reach approximately 1.69 million units by 2035, while the new-vehicle market would be around 2.2 million units that year. The more optimistic target scenario projects a market size of about 2.4 million units in 2030, with the baseline scenario estimating roughly 2 million units across all segments for the same year.
Significant emphasis is also placed on powertrain and technological advancements within the revised framework. By 2035, internal-combustion vehicles are expected to comprise 67% to 83% of production, depending on the vehicle category. Meanwhile, electric and hybrid passenger cars are targeted to account for at least 25% of the domestic new passenger-car market. The plan additionally sets a goal to produce roughly 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher. Driver-assistance features and digital vehicle systems are also highlighted as key areas of development.
Capacity utilization and localization remain core priorities
Despite its large manufacturing potential, Russia’s current annual production remains well below capacity. In 2025, passenger-car capacity was about 2.8 million units, with actual output near 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity stood at approximately 300,000 units, while production hovered around 80,000. Truck capacity was around 130,000 units, and bus capacity was close to 30,000. The country also produced around 4,400 vehicles with electric powertrains in 2025, up from 4,200 in 2024.
The new strategy emphasizes expanding the use of standardized components and technological consistency across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also establishes more ambitious localization and technological independence targets for domestically assembled vehicles. The framework covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous systems, and digital vehicle technologies. The combined goal of reaching 2.8 million annual units and maintaining an 80% domestic market share will require an implementation action plan, which is mandated by the order approving the updated strategy.