PARIS, FRANCE / EuroWire / — Global steel excess capacity is projected to reach 745 million tonnes by 2028, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The figure would exceed current production across member countries by 319 million tonnes. The projection appears in the Steel Outlook 2026, released in Paris on June 4. It places overcapacity near levels seen during the last major steel crisis.
OECD estimated excess capacity at 640 million tonnes in 2025. The report says planned additions could reach 138.8 million tonnes through 2028. That would lift global steelmaking capacity by 5.7 percent from 2025 levels. It also says demand will grow by only 34 million tonnes during the 2026 to 2028 period.
Steel demand remains weak across many large markets. The report projects global demand growth of about 0.9 percent a year through 2030. Capacity use stood at 76 percent in 2025 and could fall to 74 percent or less by 2028. Lower use rates reduce output efficiency and add financial strain for mills, workers and suppliers.
Capacity growth outpaces demand
Most capacity growth over the past two decades took place outside member economies. The report links that expansion to subsidies and other state interventions in several steel producing markets. It says the median Chinese steel firm received 15 times more subsidies in 2024, relative to assets, than the median producer elsewhere. The report also says China has begun adding capacity again after several years of limited expansion.
Chinese steelmakers exported a record 131 million tonnes in 2025. The volume equaled about 14 percent of China’s crude steel output that year. It also marked a 153 percent jump from 2020. China has up to 38.6 million tonnes of new capacity planned through 2028, the largest national addition listed in the outlook.
Trade measures increase
India added 41.4 million tonnes of steelmaking capacity between 2021 and 2025. The report lists another 31.8 million tonnes of planned additions by 2028. Strong domestic demand has kept India a modest net importer. In contrast, capacity in member economies fell by 2.8 million tonnes from 2021 to 2025, with sharper declines in the United Kingdom and Japan.
Trade actions increased in 2025 as governments responded to steel import surges. The report counts nearly 400 active antidumping and countervailing duty measures that began in 2016 or later. It also lists 75 new investigations opened in 2025, slightly below 2024 but still high by recent standards. Brazil, Canada, India, Mexico and the United States raised tariffs on many basic steel products.