ROME / RankWire.AI / – Looking ahead to 2026, global cereal output is anticipated to reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to last year’s all-time high. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, this figure would still rank as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes less than the July estimate, with an annual decline of 61.1 million tonnes, marking the most significant year-on-year drop since 2018.
Specifically, maize production worldwide is now projected at 1.309 billion tonnes following weaker crop prospects that prompted a downward revision. The ongoing summer heatwaves and dry conditions negatively impacted yields across key European Union producing regions, notably France and Poland. Meanwhile, official estimates led to smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, which are expected to lead both countries to record well-above-average maize outputs in 2026.
Wheat production is now forecast at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior projections. Improved yield forecasts for Canada and Morocco contributed roughly 1.5 million tonnes each to this upward adjustment. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine have risen, while dry weather conditions have lowered expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these revisions, global wheat production is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 and will remain the second-largest crop on record.
Maize shortages lead to downward revision of global cereal outlook
Forecasts for rice production in 2026/27 indicate a total of 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decline from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from updated data for Myanmar and robust main-crop yields in Sri Lanka. These gains offset reductions seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO predicts global cereal consumption will reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, marking a modest 0.2% increase from the previous season. While coarse grain and rice use are expected to grow, wheat consumption is anticipated to decline from last season’s high levels. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed requirements, including barley in China and maize in the United States, remain key components of coarse grain use.
Stockpiles remain at historically comfortable levels despite slight declines
At the conclusion of the 2027 seasons, world cereal stocks are projected at 947.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates but still 1.8 million tonnes above opening levels. The cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the previous season. Increases in wheat reserves are expected in Russia and Ukraine, whereas lower inventories of maize and barley have contributed to a more cautious outlook on overall stocks.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from prior estimates, yet still below the record volume of 2025/26. The rise is largely driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. The international rice trade for 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 record.