MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – The Bank of Russia projects an average key rate of 13% to 15% in 2027 under its proinflationary scenario. The forecast forms part of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2027 to 2029. Russia’s key interest rate stood at 14% at the end of August 2026. The scenario reflects stronger inflation pressures than those included in the bank’s baseline economic outlook.
The proinflationary scenario puts annual inflation at 4.5% to 5.5% in 2027. The Bank of Russia expects inflation to reach its 4% target in 2028 under that scenario. It projects an average key rate of 11% to 12% in 2028. The range then declines to 8.5% to 9.5% in 2029, while annual inflation remains at 4%.
Economic growth would remain moderate across the forecast period under the same set of assumptions. The central bank projects Russian GDP growth of 1% to 2% in 2027. It sees growth at 0.5% to 1.5% in 2028 and 1.5% to 2.5% in 2029. For 2026, the scenario places GDP growth between zero and 1%, with annual inflation ranging from 6% to 7%.
Proinflationary outlook carries higher rate path
The proinflationary scenario assumes stronger domestic demand and weaker supply growth than the baseline case. It also incorporates slower expansion of production capacity and continued pressure from inflation expectations. The framework includes stronger wage growth relative to productivity and increased competition for labor. The Bank of Russia also includes greater protectionism, higher fiscal support for demand and stronger sanctions pressure among the scenario assumptions.
Those conditions produce a higher projected interest rate path than the central bank’s baseline forecast. The baseline scenario puts the average key rate at 10.5% to 12.5% in 2027. It also projects annual inflation at 4% that year. Under the separate disinflationary scenario, the average 2027 key rate ranges from 9% to 11%, while inflation falls within a 3% to 4% range.
Key rate remains at 14%
The Bank of Russia lowered its key rate to 14% in July 2026, extending a series of reductions from earlier levels. Official central bank data showed the 14% rate remained in effect through August 31. The key rate serves as Russia’s main monetary policy tool for managing inflation and financial conditions. The central bank continues to use a 4% annual inflation target as the reference point for its medium-term policy framework.
The guidelines also contain a separate risk scenario with significantly higher inflation and interest rates. That scenario projects an average key rate of 19% to 21% in 2027. It places annual inflation at 11% to 13% during the same year. The 13% to 15% projection therefore applies only to the proinflationary scenario, not the baseline forecast or risk case outlined in the Bank of Russia’s 2027 to 2029 framework.